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Urban Innovation and Development– Developing Cities and Culture
Image by jurvetson
Each of us submitted an essay on innovation and growth beforehand for the Gruter Institute Conference on Growth. I’ll add mine below.
(photo by John Chisholm. More listed below).
Development and Development– Progressing Cities and Culture
By Steve Jurvetson.
Development is vital to economic growth, development, and the fate of the planet. Yet, it seems so random. However patterns emerge in the aggregate, and organizers and political leaders might be able to promote development and growth regardless of the overall inscrutability of this intricate system. To tap the wisdom of crowds, we ought to shift the locus of learning from products to process. Management is not finding the next development industry, but tuning the specifications of human interaction.
One emergent pattern, extending centuries, is that the pace of innovation is perpetually accelerating, and it is exogenous to the economy. Rather, it is the combinatorial surge of possible innovation-pairings that produces financial development. And that is why cities are the crucible of innovation.
Geoffrey West of the Santa Fe Institute says that cities are an autocatalytic attractor and amplifier of development. People are more ingenious and efficient, typically, when they reside in a city due to the fact that concepts can cross-pollinate more quickly. Distance promotes propinquity and the indiscrimination of what Matt Ridley calls “concepts having sex”. This positive network impact drives another positive feedback loop – by drawing in the finest and the brightest to flock to the beauty parlor of mind, the memeplex of modernity.
Cities are a structural symptom of the long arc of evolutionary indirection, where the vector of improvement has actually risen gradually up the ladder of abstractions from chemicals to genes to systems to networks. At each action, the rate of progress has leapt forward, making the prior vectors seem glacial in comparison– rather we now see the nature of DNA as well as a nerve cell as a fixed variable in modern times. Now, it’s everything about the concepts – the culture and the networks of humanity. We have moved from genetic to mimetic development, and much like the long-spanning neuron (which took us beyond nearby next-door neighbor and broadcast signaling amongst cells) ushering the Cambrian explosion of distinguished and huge body strategies, the Web brings long-spanning links between human beings, stimulating a surge in concept area, straddling isolated pools of idea.
And it’s just beginning. In the next One Decade, three billion minds will come online for the very first time to join this global discussion (Diamandis).
But why does this drive innovation and accelerating modification? Start with Brian Arthur’s observation that all brand-new technologies are combinations of technologies that already exist. Development does not take place in a vacuum; it is a combination of ideas from before. In any academic field, the advances today are constructed on a huge erection of history. This is the foundation of development, something that was not so evident to the casual observer prior to the age of science. Science tuned the procedure specifications for innovation, and became the finest method for a culture to find out.
From this conceptual base, come the origin of economic growth and accelerating technological modification, as the combinatorial surge of possible concept pairings grows exponentially as brand-new concepts enter the mix (on the order of 2 ^ n of possible collections per Reed’s Law). It explains the innovative power of urbanization and networked globalization. And it describes why interdisciplinary ideas are so strongly disruptive; it is like the differential resistance of epidemiology, whereby islands of cognitive isolation (e.g., scholastic disciplines) are vulnerable to disruptive memes hopping across, just like South America was to smallpox from Cortés and the Conquistadors. If disruption is what you look for, cognitive island-hopping is great place to begin, mining the interstices in between scholastic disciplines.
So exactly what evidence do we have of accelerating technological change? At DFJ, we see it in the diversity and quality of the entrepreneurial ideas arriving each year throughout our worldwide workplaces. Scientists do not slow their thinking throughout economic downturns. For a great mental model of the speed of development, think about Moore’s Law in the abstract– the annual doubling of compute power or information storage. As Ray Kurzweil has plotted, the smooth pace of rapid development covers from 1890 to 2012, across numerous innovations, innovation substrates, and human dramas– with many factors entirely uninformed that they were fitting to a curve.
Moore’s Law is a primary motorist of disruptive development– such as the iPod usurping the Sony Walkman franchise– and it drives not only IT and communications, but also now genomics, medical imaging and the life sciences in basic. As Moore’s Law crosses vital limits, a previously lab science of experimentation ends up being a simulation science and the pace of progress speeds up significantly, developing chances for new entrants in brand-new industries. And so the industries affected by the latest wave of tech entrepreneurs are more diverse, and an order of magnitude larger– from cars and rockets to energy and chemicals.
At the cutting edge of computational capture is biology; we are actively reengineering the information systems of biology and producing synthetic microbes whose DNA was produced from bare computer system code and an organic chemistry printer. But what to build? Up until now, we mainly copy huge systems of code from nature. However the concern spans across all the complex systems that we might want to develop, from cities to designer microbes, to computer system intelligence.
As these systems go beyond human comprehension, will we continue to develop them or will we significantly develop them? As we create for evolvability, the locus of learning shifts from the artifacts themselves to the procedure that developed them. There is no mathematical faster way for the decomposition of a neural network or hereditary program, no way to “”reverse develop” “with the ease that we can reverse engineer the artifacts of purposeful design. The charm of intensifying iterative algorithms (development, fractals, natural development, art) originates from their irreducibility. (My Google Tech Talk goes into some detail on the dichotomy of design and evolution).
The corporation is a complicated system that looks for to perpetually innovate. Leadership in these complicated organizations shifts from instructions setting to a wisdom of crowds. And the procedure knowing is a bit counterintuitive to some alpha leaders: cognitive variety is more essential than ability, disagreement is more crucial than consensus, voting policies and group size are more vital than the coherence or coherence of the decisions, and tuning the specifications of communication (frequency and fanout) is more vital than charisma.
The very same could be said for metropolitan preparation. How will cities be developed and iterated upon? Who will make those decisions and how? We are simply starting to see the shimmering refractions of the hive mind of human culture, and now we want to revamp the hives themselves to optimize the emergent intricacy within. Perhaps the very best we can do is set up the grand co-evolutionary dance, and listen thoroughly for the sociobiology of supra-human life.
Drug store Camp offers high school students chance to check out health careers
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